The Reality in Iraq

If you are interested in a sober assessment of the current state of play in Iraq and post-surge U.S. policy choices, absent the absurd ideologically driven crap from the Kagans, read Stephen Biddle's April 2 statement before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

I've found Biddle, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, to be one of the sharpest strategic minds on subjects ranging from the operational art of war to Iraq we have in this country. Biddle's statement is long (15 pdf pages) but well worth the read for the sharp insight and depth of analysis.

Comments

[MataHarley]

Very interesting historic analysis, and possible visions for the future. And yes, very unpolitical, which is much appreciated.

I would argue only one point he makes several times. That being the government that "we expected" to emerge from Iraq was supposed to be similar to that of "Germany or Japan".

Bush warned against this notion as far back as a Nov 2003 speech at the Nat'l Endowment for Democracy: (http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2003/11/20031106-2.html)
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Quote from speech:

As we watch and encourage reforms in the region, we are mindful that modernization is not the same as Westernization. Representative governments in the Middle East will reflect their own cultures. They will not, and should not, look like us. Democratic nations may be constitutional monarchies, federal republics, or parliamentary systems. And working democracies always need time to develop -- as did our own. We've taken a 200-year journey toward inclusion and justice -- and this makes us patient and understanding as other nations are at different stages of this journey.

End quote
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Thus the only ones who could be surprised at the Iraqis' finding a "bottom up" solution more appropriate are the media, who assumed and propagated the popular myth that Bush was trying to "westernize" and not "democratize".

For the rest of us who never believed Iraq would be another Germany or Japan, it was a matter of time, wondering when Iraq would find it's own way to relative stability.